Wretchard writes about Hizbollah’s buildup of rockets, apparently reaching 20k-30k, which is larger than the inventory before the recent Hizbollah War started. Both Israel and Hizbollah confirm these figures. And with the UN Peacekeepers’ blind eye watching the situation, these figures are probably correct.
When the next Israeli-Hizbo war starts, hopefully Israel will have learned from their recent experiences:
1) If you are going to invade, do it with light infantry in the lead (instead of airpower and armor).
2) Do everything possible to make your side the morally correct one (don’t commit war crimes, do not attack anything ‘Lebanese’, only attack Hizbollah targets, etc.) Document Hizbollah war crimes (using hospitals, mosques, school, civilian housing areas for military purposes, document Hizbollah’s illegal arms, evidence of Hizbollah oppression).
3) Prevent the alignment of Lebanese and Hizbollah, as Israel did so tragically last time. Form alliances to parties within Lebanon against Hizbollah.
4) Where possible, capture instead of kill.
5) It would be cool to see not a single airstrike. The side that uses these tends to lose a counterinsurgency campaign. If you do use airstrikes, use only helicopters in a close air support role. Stay away from the TACAIR for ordnance delivery.
6) Quickly pay for damage to Lebanese property, and redress all genuine grievances.
7) Make the invasion seem to be more about good governance for the Lebanese and less about killing Hizbollah. In a counterinsurgency campaign, the Objective is always the population the insurgency lives in–remember that. Never prosecute the mission to the extent it defeats the objective. That’s shooting yourself in the foot.
Col Thomas X. Hammes, USMC (Ret), thinks it possible for Nation States to defeat 4GW opponents. Israel did it at least once (Second Intifada), and hopefully they will do it again.
Good luck, Israel.